Predicting Wagyu Performance

- Overview
- Australian Systems
- Japanese Systems
- Japanese 16/16 System
        - Feedlot Application
          - Positive Assortative Mating
          - Negative Assortative Mating
- Heritable Traits Measurement Systems
- Genetic Marker Analysis

Overview

The identification of a useful predictive system for Australian Wagyu progeny is increasingly critical, due partly to the soaring costs of the long feed programs required to produce world class Wagyu products, partly to lack of access to extensive Japanese breed performance history; and partly to the significant dangers of genetic disease lurking with a relatively small genetic pool.

We look here at the possible herd improvement predictive tools and information sources for Australian Wagyu selection – including a Japanese system, heritable trait measurement (EBVs) and genetic marker use.

After identifying the near-impossibility of replicating Japanese Systems we describe the Japanese 16/16 System utilised by master breeder Mr Shogo Takeda. We believe this represents a powerful and immediately available tool for Australian Wagyu producers. 

We strongly support the ongoing development of a comprehensive BREEDPLAN EBV database and genetic marker technologies for Australian Wagyu breeders.

Australian Predictive Systems

Picture: Yard weaning. Fullbloods

For the Wagyu sires widely available in Australia, there are few published scientific progeny testing reports on which to base future breeding strategy.  Feedlot carcass data is proprietary to competing feedlots and usually provided only on producers’ own feeder shipments. Unlike Japan, there is no central database of carcass data that might be used in national herd improvement.  

Wide variation in results from Australian Wagyu crossbred feeding programs has led to individual feedlot determination on acceptable sires.  Most Australian feedlot sire specifications focus on Tajima bloodlines. Not all Tajima sires are well accepted, and the strong Tajima focus can impact feeder yields. At the seedstock level, this focus can also increase the risk of genetic disease.

Looking for adaptable systems in the broader cattle industry: many established Western breeds derive accurate performance prediction from well-recognised, extensive crossherd BREEDPLAN EBVs. Although not yet available, the foundation for crossherd EBVs in Australian Wagyu production is being built, and should eventually provide a predictive tool.  This will also provide a better basis for applying genetic marker test information.  *See Heritable Traits and Genetic Markers.

The general suitability of any non-Japanese approach for breeding superior Wagyu is yet to be proven.

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Japanese Predictive Systems

Picture: Yard weaning. Fullbloods.

In Japan there is no directly comparable Japanese breeder ‘toolbox’ to BREEDPLAN EBVs for predicting Black Wagyu progeny performance.  Possible models for future breed improvement continue to be suggested.  (see Kahi & Hirooka :2005).

Carcass traits largely define final performance.  Both Indirect and Direct Examinations on seedstock and carcasses are conducted from prefecture to national level, informing a Breeding Value ranking table for available sires based on the following parameters:

A short scientific history of recent Wagyu genetic improvement programs in Japan is available online in the Journal Of Animal Science, Sasaki et al:2006.  It would seem unlikely that such programs will ever be implemented in Australia or any other Western market.

However, a Japanese predictive methodology used by master breeder Mr Shogo Takeda can be readily applied and supported with the data available on Wagyu outside Japan.

References:

Kahi, A. K., Hirooka, H. Genetic and economic evaluation of Japanese Black (Wagyu) cattle breeding schemes  J. Anim Sci. 2005 83: 2021-2032

Sasaki, Y., Miyake, T., Gaillard, C., Oguni, T., Matsumoto, M., Ito, M., Kurahara, T., Sasae, Y., Fujinaka, K., Ohtagaki, S., Dougo, T.  Comparison of genetic gains per year for carcass traits among breeding programs in the Japanese Brown and the Japanese Black cattle J. Anim Sci. 2006 84: 317-323

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Japanese 16/16 Analysis

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On the basis of proven market relevance (or market value),  we believe this Japanese 16/16 assessment is currently the most useful method for describing Australian Wagyu seedstock and predicting near-term breeding outcomes. All seedstock offered here have been expertly assessed using this method. 

The approach represents a ‘return to basics’, providing both objective and expert intuitive analysis of individual Wagyu over four generations. The first stage identifies the combination of key regional Wagyu strains, each of which predicates a likely outcome. The combinations are then analysed. (See Wagyu In Japan).

The Combination analysis addresses the traditions of Japanese Black Wagyu breeding as described by Mr. Kenichi Ono, author of the authoritative ‘Japanese Top 100 Wagyu’ who suggests that successful breeding of Wagyu is to:

1. Understand the characteristics of each strain
2. Plan combinations to cover weak points of individual strains
3. Not over-emphasise one strain

From analysis of the balance of combinations, the 16/16 assessment can provide a  snapshot of the likely outcome of any joining in key traits including marbling, growth and milk production.  Successful assessment is assisted by the relatively small number of superior sires available. 

The 16/16 system is also useful in planning bull production or a  breeder herd with specific target traits.

A16/16 assessment of well-known Black Wagyu sires in Australia is presented here (See Wagyu Genetics in Australia).  All seedstock for sale by the Australian Wagyu Forum is described by 16/16 methodology, with other relevant data.

Our objective is to provide high market value information to buyers producing Black Wagyu and Black Wagyu cross cattle for long feeding or breeding programs.

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Feedlot Application

In essence, the only thing that is unfamiliar to Western breeders about this system is its name.  
  
Australian breeding value assessments of Wagyu sires and predictions of joining outcomes are routinely determined by feedlot staff through similar but largely informal pedigree and bloodline analysis.  Desirability is measured by bloodline analysis, pedigree and historical bloodline performance on feed.  EBV or gene marker data is rarely considered.

De facto Australian Wagyu sire rankings have been created in this process, with some variation by feedlot.  There is no other current sire ranking system and, given the central ‘market making’ position of feedlots in the Australian Wagyu industry, the medium term emergence of a commercial alternative seems unlikely.

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Positive Assortative Mating

The formalised 16/16 system of pedigree analysis and prediction used by Mr Takeda also shares conceptual roots with the traditional Western strategy of ' positive assortative mating', which has been shown to have a direct bias effect on EBVs - expressed in superior performance.  (See Zollinger & Nielson, 1984).

Japanese implementation of 'positive assortative mating' is very rigorous, which enables excellent predictive analysis using extended pedigrees in which identified female traits are at least as important as sire traits. 

As we know, individual prefecture strains, or families of Black Wagyu in Japan have been linebred for differing but specific (to the prefecture) traits over many generations, using intense selection pressure to 'fix' and then consistently reproduce the desired attributes.  For an excellent explanation of similar Western inbreeding strategies, see University of Missouri 'Inbreeding'.

In Western positive assortative mating practice, extreme individuals are joined for significant variation/gain.  In the Japanese environment, entire prefecture families would probably be defined as the extremes, and modern Japanese programs targeting genetic gain apply this approach.

There are few 'super bulls' and 'super cows' in each family.  This simplifies the prediction of outcomes through relatively few pedigrees, which become highly influential quite rapidly because virtually all mating over entire Japanese herds is by AI and ET.

The 16/16 pedigree analysis looks back over the recorded genealogy of individual animals and identifies and 'weights' dominant traits to make a next-generation prediction of breeding outcome.  Compared with other breeds, extreme and consistent historical selection/trait fixing enables the high accuracy of predictions within Black Wagyu. 

This can be readily verified by subsequent observation of a genetically diverse group of young Wagyu peers  – performance indicators such weight, growth, frame size and build can be directly related in reverse (to prefecture type) once the genealogy is understood, because the dominant traits are so firmly fixed.

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Negative Assortative Mating

The Takeda rotational breeding plan is a Japanese expression of Western ‘negative assortative mating’ for use in commercial herds.  Here the joining of the four groups is both complementary and compensatory - creating more 'rounded' progeny but with a decline in the dominance of ‘extreme’ prefecture traits.  The rotation also provides some protection from genetic disease associated with inbreeding.

The overall approach is complementary with EBV and genetic markers analysis in making breeding decisions.  In Black Wagyu in Australia, 16/16 analysis enables cross herd assessment between quite different groups of cattle – for example a high Kedaka group compared with a high Tajima group.  In this application, it is probably the ONLY effective tool available.

(For more information on assortative mating, see Bourdon, R.M. (1997) 'Understanding Animal Breeding',  Prentice Hall. NJ.)

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Heritable Trait Measurement Systems

Picture: Month old fullblood calves at first muster

The successful BREEDPLAN EBV (Estimated Breeding Values) system marketed by ABRI at the University of New England in Australia is embraced by many leading breed societies and thousands of cattle producers around the world. 

BREEDPLAN is founded on continuous multi-generational capture of important cattle trait measurements which then enable database engines to produce predictive values for many heritable traits ranging from birth weight to carcass attributes such as IMF – which is widely used as a predictor for marbling and is therefore a uniquely critical value in predicting Wagyu breeding outcomes. 

In a significant milestone, inaugural Group BreedPlan (GBP) EBVs for the Australian fullblood Wagyu herd were web-published in 2009, including carcass trait EBV predictive graphs derived from ultrasound scanning for numerous registered animals.

This type of data collection is now common practice: breed societies worldwide use ultrasound technology to successfully predict carcass traits. (See for example, Reverter et al, 2000).  Although recognizing that significant aspects of Wagyu carcass production are unique, and because no actual carcass data was available, the Australian Wagyu carcass prediction charts were derived from ultrasound scans of live animals at 500 days of age – or about half the age that a ‘finished’ Wagyu feeder might typically be slaughtered. 
(For the official explanation of the methodology and potential accuracy of the 2009 GBP EBV charts see “EBVs Explained”  here.  This includes specific explanation of the IMF trait data collection)
In Wagyu, the IMF trait is crucially important as it is generally taken as the indicator for marbling –arguably the most important economic indicator for the breed.  So when the new EBVs were released, we ran the essential ‘reality check’ to compare the EBV scan predictions with actual carcass data. 

It is possible to do this with a high degree of accuracy due to several years of a ‘one for breeding/one for feeding’ selection program.   Substantially enabled by the production of flush siblings in ET programs, this involves retaining one animal for breeding and then selling a full sibling onto feed in an independent commercial feedlot. 

Many months later this provides performance data that will help determine the breeding value of the retained sibling - and we are now also able to compare the actual carcass results of a feeder with the new EBV carcass predictions for a registered breeder /full sibling.   
In this context, it is essential to note that using ancestral information, two flush mates or full siblings have exactly the same EBV (see Van Eenennaam, 2009, University of California here.)  So this comparison is entirely valid.

Although most Australian Wagyu EBV values compared well with ‘real’ animal outcomes, it was quickly apparent that the IMF chart line provided a substantially inadequate marbling forecast for some joinings, usually involving larger, non-Tajima sires.   In an example used in Tak Suzuki’s Reno presentation, the EBV IMF chart for a registered sire – based on ancestral data – predicted  a ‘below average IMF’ outcome with the claim that this was ‘medium’  51% accurate.   In fact, the actual carcass result from his full brother feeder was JMGA-equivalent BMS 10 – with marbling well into the highest Japanese grading category.
As both animals share an identical EBV, it is clear that the specific GBP EBV IMF trait chart is both dramatically inaccurate and of negative value in a sire selection process. Given the supreme economic importance of marbling within the breed, this is a serious stumbling block, although hopefully just an early ‘teething problem’ with important new GBP EBVs. 

To verify this and in order to deliver a fair and balanced summary both at Reno and on the web, we went through official channels to enquire whether there is a simple explanation for the contradiction.  This process took place both prior to the Reno conference and again prior to this web update. No explanation has been received.

It is not possible to turn to Japanese commercial Wagyu breeding experience to test the result.  For although the development  of imaging technologies for the beef industry in Japan paralleled Western development in the 1990s  (see, for example, Kuchida et al, 1994  ),  ultrasound scanning of live Wagyu is not widely practiced in Japan, and Japanese breeders rely on the undeniable realities of post-slaughter/actual carcass data collection (see Kahi & Hirooka, 2005 :p2026).

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Genetic Marker Analysis

Picture: Month old fullblood calves at first muster

DNA marker analysis is widely used in the Japanese Wagyu industry for predicting genetic diseases – one of the most accurate applications of DNA technology.

An excellent snapshot of the general usefulness of gene marker application can be found at Marker Assisted Selection in Cattle, University of California, Davis. Experts here recommend that genetic marker application should be closely integrated with EPD (or EBV) data and other observed performance indicators.  DNA marker tests are seen as an incremental tool, not a replacement.

The potential complexity of breeder decision making using these complementary technologies, with clear illustrations of typical trade-offs, is detailed in DNA Technologies, a chapter from a sire selection text also published by UC, Davis.

In both Australia and the United States, independent assessment is available for developers of predictive DNA technologies in animal breeding and the technology underwent a comprehensive scientific review in 2008, after which major parties published a joint statement.   The statement is available at the Australian Beef CRC website here.   A more detailed PDF summary can be downloaded here, note marbling results on page 3.)
Two DNA predictive product ranges have been widely used in Australian Wagyu production:

• GeneStar , marketed by Pfizer Animal Health, is a world-leading Australian-developed technology for genetic marker assessment in cattle, with independently ratified tests to identify DNA influencing meat tenderness while work continues on marbling and feed efficiency predictors. Results of the latest CRC reviews of Pfizer GeneSTAR technology are available here.

•  Specific to Wagyu, Japan-based Prescribe Genomics offers tests to identify markers influencing growth, marbling, and fat composition.  

Source: Meat & Livestock Australia, 2008 Click for larger picture

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